2006 Senate · MN
Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 2006-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 1,027 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 34%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.06% · Republican 37.94%
D+20.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 34 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 58.056 − 37.936 = 20.120
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (20.120) = 0.880
- Absolute miss = |0.880| = 0.880
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24718, race ID 1592 (538 database).