2006 Senate · MN
St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 31%
D+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.06% · Republican 37.94%
D+20.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 31 = 25.00
- Actual margin = 58.056 − 37.936 = 20.120
- Signed miss = 25.00 − (20.120) = 4.880
- Absolute miss = |4.880| = 4.880
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24717, race ID 1592 (538 database).