2006 Governor · MN
St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 37%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.73% · Republican 46.69%
R+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 37 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 45.733 − 46.691 = -0.958
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (-0.958) = 9.958
- Absolute miss = |9.958| = 9.958
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24717, race ID 1345 (538 database).