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2006 Governor · FL

SEA Polling & Strategic Design · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 48%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.11% · Republican 52.18%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 48 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.106 − 52.179 = -7.073
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-7.073) = 1.073
  4. Absolute miss = |1.073| = 1.073

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24705, race ID 1334 (538 database).