Skip to content

2006 Senate · TX

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 60%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.05% · Republican 61.69%

R+25.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 60 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.045 − 61.692 = -25.647
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-25.647) = -0.353
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.353| = 0.353

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24632, race ID 1606 (538 database).