Skip to content

2006 Senate · TN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.99% · Republican 50.71%

R+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.989 − 50.712 = -2.723
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.723) = 0.723
  4. Absolute miss = |0.723| = 0.723

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24621, race ID 1605 (538 database).