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2006 Senate · RI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 44%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.52% · Republican 46.48%

D+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.519 − 46.481 = 7.038
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.038) = 0.963
  4. Absolute miss = |0.963| = 0.963

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24610, race ID 1604 (538 database).