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2006 Governor · RI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.99% · Republican 51.01%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.991 − 51.009 = -2.018
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-2.018) = -4.983
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.983| = 4.983

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24610, race ID 1354 (538 database).