2006 Senate · NV
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 54%
R+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.99% · Republican 55.36%
R+14.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 54 = -12.00
- Actual margin = 40.990 − 55.358 = -14.368
- Signed miss = -12.00 − (-14.368) = 2.368
- Absolute miss = |2.368| = 2.368
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24577, race ID 1597 (538 database).