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2006 Governor · NV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 47.93%

R+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 47.926 = -4.006
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-4.006) = 2.006
  4. Absolute miss = |2.006| = 2.006

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24577, race ID 1349 (538 database).