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2006 Senate · MO

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.58% · Republican 47.31%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.578 − 47.308 = 2.270
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (2.270) = -4.270
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.270| = 4.270

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24524, race ID 1594 (538 database).