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2006 Senate · MN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 39%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.06% · Republican 37.94%

D+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.056 − 37.936 = 20.120
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (20.120) = -6.120
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.120| = 6.120

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24513, race ID 1592 (538 database).