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2006 Senate · ME

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 70%

R+46.0

The certified result

Democrat 20.75% · Republican 74.40%

R+53.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 70 = -46.00
  2. Actual margin = 20.753 − 74.404 = -53.651
  3. Signed miss = -46.00 − (-53.651) = 7.651
  4. Absolute miss = |7.651| = 7.651

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24499, race ID 1588 (538 database).