Skip to content

2006 Governor · CT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 57%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.45% · Republican 63.20%

R+27.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 57 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.446 − 63.202 = -27.756
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-27.756) = 5.756
  4. Absolute miss = |5.756| = 5.756

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24472, race ID 1333 (538 database).