2006 Governor · PA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 933 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 35%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.37% · Republican 39.63%
D+20.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 35 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 60.365 − 39.635 = 20.730
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (20.730) = 2.271
- Absolute miss = |2.271| = 2.271
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24449, race ID 1353 (538 database).