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2006 Senate · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 887 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 44%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%

D+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (16.019) = -11.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.019| = 11.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24431, race ID 1598 (538 database).