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2006 Senate · FL

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2006-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 816 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 64% · Republican 29%

D+35.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.30% · Republican 38.10%

D+22.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 64 − 29 = 35.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.301 − 38.096 = 22.205
  3. Signed miss = 35.00 − (22.205) = 12.795
  4. Absolute miss = |12.795| = 12.795

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24421, race ID 1585 (538 database).