2006 Governor · CT
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2006-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 881 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 33% · Republican 59%
R+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 35.45% · Republican 63.20%
R+27.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 33 − 59 = -26.00
- Actual margin = 35.446 − 63.202 = -27.756
- Signed miss = -26.00 − (-27.756) = 1.756
- Absolute miss = |1.756| = 1.756
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24415, race ID 1333 (538 database).