2006 Senate · VA
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 597 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 46%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.59% · Republican 49.20%
D+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 49.594 − 49.201 = 0.393
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.393) = 3.606
- Absolute miss = |3.606| = 3.606
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24400, race ID 1609 (538 database).