2006 Senate · TN
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 541 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 52%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.99% · Republican 50.71%
R+2.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 47.989 − 50.712 = -2.723
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-2.723) = -5.277
- Absolute miss = |-5.277| = 5.277
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24399, race ID 1605 (538 database).