2006 Governor · TN
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 541 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 37%
D+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 68.60% · Republican 29.74%
D+38.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 37 = 22.00
- Actual margin = 68.598 − 29.741 = 38.857
- Signed miss = 22.00 − (38.857) = -16.857
- Absolute miss = |-16.857| = 16.857
The poll overstated the Republican by 16.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24399, race ID 1357 (538 database).