2006 Senate · WA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 37%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.85% · Republican 39.93%
D+16.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 37 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 56.853 − 39.933 = 16.920
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (16.920) = -1.919
- Absolute miss = |-1.919| = 1.919
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24373, race ID 1610 (538 database).