2006 Senate · TN
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 45%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.99% · Republican 50.71%
R+2.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 47.989 − 50.712 = -2.723
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.723) = 0.723
- Absolute miss = |0.723| = 0.723
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24364, race ID 1605 (538 database).