Skip to content

2006 Senate · RI

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.52% · Republican 46.48%

D+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.519 − 46.481 = 7.038
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (7.038) = -2.037
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.037| = 2.037

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24361, race ID 1604 (538 database).