2006 Governor · RI
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 49%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.99% · Republican 51.01%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 49 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 48.991 − 51.009 = -2.018
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-2.018) = -7.983
- Absolute miss = |-7.983| = 7.983
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24361, race ID 1354 (538 database).