2006 Senate · PA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 39%
D+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.64% · Republican 41.28%
D+17.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 39 = 13.00
- Actual margin = 58.637 − 41.283 = 17.354
- Signed miss = 13.00 − (17.354) = -4.354
- Absolute miss = |-4.354| = 4.354
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24357, race ID 1603 (538 database).