2006 Governor · OH
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 37%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.54% · Republican 36.65%
D+23.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 37 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 60.541 − 36.648 = 23.893
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (23.893) = -4.892
- Absolute miss = |-4.892| = 4.892
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24354, race ID 1351 (538 database).