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2006 Senate · NV

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 54%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.99% · Republican 55.36%

R+14.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 54 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.990 − 55.358 = -14.368
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-14.368) = -2.632
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.632| = 2.632

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24349, race ID 1597 (538 database).