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2006 House · MT-1

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 57%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.13% · Republican 58.88%

R+19.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 57 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.130 − 58.879 = -19.749
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-19.749) = -4.250
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.250| = 4.250

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24340, race ID 3825 (538 database).