Skip to content

2006 Governor · MI

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 38%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.36% · Republican 42.30%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 38 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.363 − 42.304 = 14.059
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (14.059) = -0.059
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.059| = 0.059

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24334, race ID 1344 (538 database).