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2006 Governor · MD

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 52.69% · Republican 46.16%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.691 − 46.159 = 6.532
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (6.532) = -6.532
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.532| = 6.532

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24332, race ID 1342 (538 database).