Skip to content

2006 Senate · AZ

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 49%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.50% · Republican 53.34%

R+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 49 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.499 − 53.341 = -9.842
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-9.842) = 1.841
  4. Absolute miss = |1.841| = 1.841

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24325, race ID 1581 (538 database).