2006 Senate · NY
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 65% · Republican 32%
D+33.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.42% · Republican 25.80%
D+31.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 65 − 32 = 33.00
- Actual margin = 57.416 − 25.803 = 31.613
- Signed miss = 33.00 − (31.613) = 1.387
- Absolute miss = |1.387| = 1.387
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24318, race ID 1600 (538 database).