2006 Senate · NJ
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 619 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 42%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%
D+16.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 42 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (16.019) = -8.019
- Absolute miss = |-8.019| = 8.019
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24316, race ID 1598 (538 database).