2006 Senate · VA
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 385 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 44%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.59% · Republican 49.20%
D+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 49.594 − 49.201 = 0.393
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.393) = 2.606
- Absolute miss = |2.606| = 2.606
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24314, race ID 1609 (538 database).