2006 Senate · TN
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 515 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 49%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.99% · Republican 50.71%
R+2.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 47.989 − 50.712 = -2.723
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-2.723) = -2.277
- Absolute miss = |-2.277| = 2.277
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24313, race ID 1605 (538 database).