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2006 Senate · MD

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.21% · Republican 44.20%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.206 − 44.195 = 10.011
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (10.011) = 1.990
  4. Absolute miss = |1.990| = 1.990

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24289, race ID 1589 (538 database).