2006 Senate · TN
Gallup · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 676 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 49%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.99% · Republican 50.71%
R+2.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 47.989 − 50.712 = -2.723
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-2.723) = -0.277
- Absolute miss = |-0.277| = 0.277
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24285, race ID 1605 (538 database).