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2006 Senate · RI

Gallup · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 706 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.52% · Republican 46.48%

D+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.519 − 46.481 = 7.038
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (7.038) = -4.037
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.037| = 4.037

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24283, race ID 1604 (538 database).