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2006 Senate · NJ

Gallup · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 654 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 40%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%

D+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 40 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (16.019) = -6.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.019| = 6.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24279, race ID 1598 (538 database).