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2006 Senate · MO

Gallup · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 710 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.58% · Republican 47.31%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.578 − 47.308 = 2.270
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.270) = 1.730
  4. Absolute miss = |1.730| = 1.730

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24274, race ID 1594 (538 database).