2006 Senate · PA
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 626 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 38%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.64% · Republican 41.28%
D+17.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 38 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 58.637 − 41.283 = 17.354
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (17.354) = -2.354
- Absolute miss = |-2.354| = 2.354
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24264, race ID 1603 (538 database).