2006 Governor · PA
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 626 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 33%
D+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.37% · Republican 39.63%
D+20.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 33 = 25.00
- Actual margin = 60.365 − 39.635 = 20.730
- Signed miss = 25.00 − (20.730) = 4.271
- Absolute miss = |4.271| = 4.271
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24264, race ID 1353 (538 database).