2006 Governor · CA
Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 795 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 33% · Republican 49%
R+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.91% · Republican 55.88%
R+17.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 33 − 49 = -16.00
- Actual margin = 38.905 − 55.881 = -16.976
- Signed miss = -16.00 − (-16.976) = 0.976
- Absolute miss = |0.976| = 0.976
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24258, race ID 1331 (538 database).