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2006 Senate · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 38%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.26%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 38 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.910 − 41.258 = 15.652
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (15.652) = -3.652
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.652| = 3.652

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24243, race ID 1591 (538 database).