Skip to content

2006 Governor · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.36% · Republican 42.30%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.363 − 42.304 = 14.059
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (14.059) = -9.059
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.059| = 9.059

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24243, race ID 1344 (538 database).