2006 Senate · MI
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 38%
D+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.26%
D+15.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 38 = 13.00
- Actual margin = 56.910 − 41.258 = 15.652
- Signed miss = 13.00 − (15.652) = -2.652
- Absolute miss = |-2.652| = 2.652
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24241, race ID 1591 (538 database).