2006 House · ME-2
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 25%
D+37.0
The certified result
Democrat 70.52% · Republican 29.48%
D+41.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 25 = 37.00
- Actual margin = 70.519 − 29.481 = 41.038
- Signed miss = 37.00 − (41.038) = -4.037
- Absolute miss = |-4.037| = 4.037
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24230, race ID 3770 (538 database).