2006 Senate · ME
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 14% · Republican 74%
R+60.0
The certified result
Democrat 20.75% · Republican 74.40%
R+53.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 14 − 74 = -60.00
- Actual margin = 20.753 − 74.404 = -53.651
- Signed miss = -60.00 − (-53.651) = -6.349
- Absolute miss = |-6.349| = 6.349
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24230, race ID 1588 (538 database).