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2006 Senate · OH

Columbus Dispatch · fieldwork ended 2006-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 1,541 respondents · Mail

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 38%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.16% · Republican 43.81%

D+12.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 38 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.164 − 43.815 = 12.349
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (12.349) = 11.651
  4. Absolute miss = |11.651| = 11.651

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24228, race ID 1602 (538 database).